ABSTRACT:We use a cost-of-capital framework to analyze the long-run steady state and transition path for GDP as a result of the 2017 tax law. We predict that, for the law as written, the long-run increase in corporate productivity will be 2.5 percent, which translates into a 0.4 percent increase in GDP after 10 years—or an increase in the growth rate of 0.04 percentage point per year. If the 2019 provisions of the law are made permanent, these numbers are 4.8 percent for long-run corporate productivity, 1.2 percent for GDP after 10 years, and 0.13 percentage point for the increase in the growth rate. We perform a sensitivity analysis, and conclude that if interest rates rose as a result of fiscal crowding out, the 10th-year GDP increases would be 0.2 percent and 1.0 percent for the two scenarios, respectively. We assess the short-run impact of the 2.3 percentage point reduction in average marginal tax rates for individuals under the law. Existing empirical evidence implies that this change would raise the annual GDP growth rate for 2018–19 by 0.9 percentage point per year.

中文翻译：

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2017年税制改革的宏观经济影响

摘要：我们使用资本成本框架来分析2017年税法导致的GDP长期稳定状态和过渡路径。我们预计，按照成文法，公司生产率的长期增长将达到2.5％，这意味着10年后国内生产总值将增长0.4％，也就是每年以0.04个百分点的速度增长。如果将该法律的2019年规定永久化，则长期公司生产率的数字为4.8％，十年后的GDP率为1.2％，增长率为0.13个百分点。我们进行了敏感性分析，并得出结论，如果由于财政紧缩导致利率上升，则两种情况下的10年GDP增​​长率分别为0.2％和1.0％。根据法律，我们评估了个人平均边际税率降低2.3个百分点的短期影响。现有的经验证据表明，这一变化将使2018-19年度GDP年增长率提高0.9个百分点。