Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between CO2 emission and its core determinants, namely, economic growth, energy consumption and trade openness in the pre- and post-Kyoto Protocol era in the Indian economy. Design/methodology/approach The study uses the ARDL bounds test to analyze the long-run and short-run empirical relationship between the interested variables for the time period 1971-2013. A dummy variable representing the Kyoto Protocol regime has been included to examine the likely impact of international climate policies (Kyoto Protocol) in controlling and reducing CO2 emission in India. Findings The empirical results indicate the possibility of increase in CO2 emission from India even after the Kyoto Protocol regime. Evidence of inverted U-shaped relationship between CO2 emission and economic growth (EKC hypothesis) has been confirmed. However, compared to increase in CO2 emission, the magnitude of decrease due to improvement in economic growth is relatively lesser. Energy consumption and trade openness are also found to increase CO2 emission. Research limitations/implications The results indicate that there is a lack of commitment on the part of India to curtail CO2 emission, which can be disastrous for future prosperity. Financing the renewable electricity generation, R&D subsidy and tax-free renewable energy seems to be imperative to address this catastrophic problem. Originality/value This study is the first attempt to analyze the impact of international climate policy (Kyoto Protocol) on CO2 emission by incorporating a fixed dummy in the ARDL specifications.

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京都议定书和二氧化碳排放：印度还在冬眠吗？

目的本研究的目的是调查二氧化碳排放与其核心决定因素之间的关系，即印度经济中京都议定书前后时代的经济增长、能源消耗和贸易开放度。设计/方法/途径 该研究使用ARDL界限检验来分析1971-2013年期间感兴趣的变量之间的长期和短期经验关系。已包含代表京都议定书制度的虚拟变量，以检查国际气候政策（京都议定书）在控制和减少印度二氧化碳排放方面的可能影响。结果 实证结果表明，即使在京都议定书制度之后，印度的二氧化碳排放量仍有可能增加。CO2 排放与经济增长（EKC 假设）之间倒 U 形关系的证据已得到证实。但与二氧化碳排放量的增加相比，经济增长改善导致的下降幅度相对较小。还发现能源消耗和贸易开放会增加二氧化碳排放。研究局限性/影响 结果表明，印度方面缺乏减少二氧化碳排放的承诺，这对未来的繁荣可能是灾难性的。为可再生能源发电、研发补贴和免税可再生能源融资似乎是解决这一灾难性问题的必要条件。