ABSTRACT

While all valuers are obliged to act impartially and transparently to reduce bias, the closer relationship between valuers and clients among internal valuations may raise additional concerns regarding the independence of the valuer and hence the objectivity of the result. This paper analyses how internal and external valuations differ in their ability to mirror market prices. The dataset for the analyses contained 4,805 commercial properties in Germany between 1995 and 2013. The first part of the analysis was a Market-Adjusted Valuation and Actual Sale Price Comparison, based on sold properties. It showed that a majority of both valuation types had a valuation error within the acceptable threshold of 15% but that external valuations were on average significantly closer to sale prices than internal valuations. Due to sample selection issues, a second analysis, called Actual Valuation and Fitted Sale Price Comparison, was carried out. Real transactions were used to derive hedonic prices that could be compared against valuations of held properties. The Heckman Correction was used to mitigate sample selection bias. The results showed that both valuation types produced a majority of observations within the set threshold but that external valuations were on average closer to sale prices than internal valuations.

摘要

虽然所有估值师都有义务以公正和透明的方式行事以减少偏见，但内部估值中估值师与客户之间更密切的关系可能会引起对估值师独立性以及结果客观性的额外担忧。本文分析了内部和外部估值在反映市场价格的能力方面有何不同。分析数据集包含 1995 年至 2013 年间德国的 4,805 处商业地产。分析的第一部分是市场调整估值和实际销售价格比较，基于已售物业。结果表明，大多数两种估值类型的估值误差都在 15% 的可接受阈值内，但与内部估值相比，外部估值平均更接近销售价格。由于样本选择问题，进行了第二次分析，称为实际估价和拟合销售价格比较。真实交易被用来推导出享乐价格，该价格可以与持有物业的估值进行比较。Heckman 校正用于减轻样本选择偏差。结果表明，两种估值类型都在设定的阈值内产生了大部分观察结果，但外部估值平均比内部估值更接近销售价格。