We examine inflation forecast disagreement during periods of deflation. Using a large cross-country data set of professional forecasters’ expectations, we show that the relationship between inflation outcomes and forecast disagreement is U-shaped: disagreement rises with both positive and negative inflation outcomes. We show that information frictions do not explain rising disagreement in deflations and other macroeconomic factors that generally tend to correlate with forecast disagreement cannot fully explain its increase. Instead, our results are consistent with forecasters having heterogeneous views about the inflation process, with those in the left-tail of the forecast distribution shifting downward during deflations. Econometric evidence indicates that such shifts have adverse consequences for real activity.

中文翻译：

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在通货紧缩期间不同意

我们研究了通货紧缩时期通胀预测的分歧。使用专业预测者预期的大型跨国数据集，我们表明通胀结果与预测分歧之间的关系是 U 型的：分歧随着通胀结果的正面和负面而增加。我们表明，信息摩擦并不能解释通缩分歧加剧，其他通常与预测分歧相关的宏观经济因素也不能完全解释通缩分歧的加剧。相反，我们的结果与对通胀过程持有不同观点的预测者一致，预测分布左尾的预测者在通货紧缩期间向下移动。计量经济学证据表明，这种转变对实际活动产生不利影响。