ABSTRACT

Tree plantations have expanded rapidly during the last decades, specially in Asia and South America, and Chile has shown one of the largest increases in tree plantations in the world. The aim of this study was to analyze the dynamic and factors statistically associated with the expansion of tree plantations in two coastal basins in south-central Chile. We used logistic regression and a multimodel inference approach to assess the association of 13 location factors with tree plantation expansion in two periods (1987–2001; 2001–2015). The area of tree plantations increased by 292% and 196% in the Budi and Lingue basins, respectively. The presence of agriculture fields before conversion to tree plantations showed the greatest effect in both basins, followed by the suitability of the soil for forestry. Likewise, tree plantations were highly associated with the replacement of native vegetation, contributing to ongoing deforestation, and changes in forest policy increased the expansion in indigenous land.

摘要

在过去的几十年中，人工林发展迅速，特别是在亚洲和南美，智利已成为世界上人工林增幅最大的国家之一。这项研究的目的是分析与智利中南部两个沿海盆地的人工林扩张相关的动态和统计因素。我们使用逻辑回归和多模型推理方法评估了两个时期（1987-2001年； 2001-2015年）中13个位置因素与人工林扩张的关联。布迪盆地和林格盆地的人工林面积分别增加了292％和196％。转换为人工林之前，农田的存在对两个流域的影响最大，其次是土壤对林业的适应性。同样地，