The number of languages into which the Bible has been translated has grown exponentially during the past 2,300 years. The history of Bible translation can be divided into three periods of growth, each with its distinct limiting and driving forces. In the low-growth period between 260 BCE and 1814 CE growth was constrained by the rise of Islam and later by the information monopoly of the Catholic Church. The year 1815 was the inflection point, at which annual growth rates rose from below 1 to above 1 per cent. The century 1815–1914 was a period of substantial growth due to the co-occurrence of three driving forces: Christian revivalism, internationalisation, and industrialisation. This was followed by a third period—the era of explosive growth between 1915 and today—in which information technology and the organisational structure of translation agencies have spurred growth. An array of multinational organisations of Anglo-Saxon origin have created a quasi-monopoly for worldwide Bible translation. The exponential growth of worldwide Bible translation can be modelled by a mathematical function. Using this function and assuming the continuation of current trends, it is possible to project the end of the history of pioneer Bible translation sometime between 2026 and 2031.

中文翻译：

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为什么全球圣经翻译呈指数增长

在过去的 2300 年里，圣经被翻译成的语言数量呈指数增长。圣经翻译的历史可以分为三个发展时期，每个时期都有其独特的限制和推动力。在公元前 260 年至公元 1814 年的低增长时期，增长受到伊斯兰教兴起和后来天主教会信息垄断的制约。1815 年是拐点，年增长率从低于 1% 上升到高于 1%。1815-1914 世纪是一个大幅增长的时期，这归因于三种驱动力的同时发生：基督教复兴主义、国际化和工业化。随后是第三个时期——1915 年至今的爆炸性增长时期——信息技术和翻译机构的组织结构刺激了增长。一系列起源于盎格鲁-撒克逊的跨国组织为世界范围的圣经翻译创造了准垄断地位。全球圣经翻译的指数增长可以用数学函数建模。使用此功能并假设当前趋势的延续，可以预测先驱圣经翻译的历史将在 2026 年至 2031 年之间的某个时间结束。