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Bigger data, better questions, and a return to fourth down behavior: an introduction to a special issue on tracking datain the National football League
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2020-06-25 , DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2020-0057
Michael J. Lopez 1
Affiliation  

Abstract Most historical National Football League (NFL) analysis, both mainstream and academic, has relied on public, play-level data to generate team and player comparisons. Given the number of oft omitted variables that impact on-field results, such as play call, game situation, and opponent strength, findings tend to be more anecdotal than actionable. With the release of player tracking data, however, analysts can better ask and answer questions to isolate skill and strategy. In this article, we highlight the limitations of traditional analyses, and use a decades-old punching bag for analysts, fourth-down strategy, as a microcosm for why tracking data is needed. Specifically, we assert that, in absence of using the precise yardage needed for a first down, past findings supporting an aggressive fourth down strategy may have been overstated. Next, we synthesize recent work that comprises this special Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports issue into player tracking data in football. Finally, we conclude with some best practices and limitations regarding usage of this data. The release of player tracking data marks a transition for the league and its’ analysts, and we hope this issue helps guide innovation in football analytics for years to come.

中文翻译:

更大的数据,更好的问题,以及第四次击倒的行为:国家足球联盟中有关跟踪数据的特刊简介

摘要大多数历史悠久的国家橄榄球联盟(NFL)分析,无论是主流分析还是学术分析,都依赖于公开的比赛水平数据来进行球队和球员之间的比较。考虑到经常影响比赛结果的遗漏变量的数量,例如比赛电话,比赛情况和对手实力,发现往往比可操作的更具趣味性。但是,随着玩家跟踪数据的发布,分析师可以更好地提出和回答问题,以隔离技能和策略。在本文中,我们强调了传统分析的局限性,并使用了数十年历史的沙袋作为分析员的第四次向下策略,作为为什么需要跟踪数据的缩影。具体来说,我们断言,在没有使用第一次羽绒所需的精确码数的情况下,过去支持积极的第四羽绒策略的发现可能被夸大了。下一个,我们将最近的工作(包括本期《体育定量分析杂志》)综合到足球运动员的跟踪数据中。最后,我们总结了有关此数据使用的一些最佳实践和局限性。球员跟踪数据的发布标志着联盟及其分析师的过渡,我们希望这一问题有助于在未来几年内指导足球分析领域的创新。
更新日期:2020-06-25
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