Abstract In this paper we conduct an equilibrium analysis of the 2015–2016 NBA record breaking season culminating in the dramatic final series upset produced by the Cleveland Cavaliers (CLE) over the Golden State Warriors (GSW). A Stackelberg equilibrium (Conitzer and Sandholm 2006) is constructed for each pair of NBA teams, as a pair of mixed offensive strategies defined over 2- and 3-point shot court locations. The first component corresponds to Team A’s offensive strategy playing against team B’s defense, and the second component is team B’s offensive strategy playing against team A’s defense. The results support the following insights. First, the results suggest that future NBA 3-point averages are headed higher to 37.9%, in contrast with current regular and playoff season averages for the 2015–2016 of 28.6% and 30.9%, respectively. Second, the results provide a means for evaluating the influence of an opposing team’s defense upon offensive strategy. Third, the results provide a strategic interpretation of the final NBA 2015–2016 playoff series where CLE upset GSW. GSW started close to their predicted strategy and then almost monotonically shifted further away whereas CLE moved closer to their predicted strategy. Realized outcomes correlate with these strategic trends.

中文翻译：

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NBA的最佳投篮选择策略

摘要在本文中，我们对2015–2016 NBA破纪录的赛季进行了平衡分析，最终以克利夫兰骑士（CLE）对金州勇士（GSW）的戏剧性最终系列遭遇高潮告终。为每对NBA球队建立一个Stackelberg平衡（Conitzer和Sandholm，2006年），作为在2点和3点投篮位置上定义的混合进攻策略。第一部分对应于A队对抗B队的防守的进攻策略，第二部分对应于B队对A队的防守的进攻策略。结果支持以下见解。首先，结果表明，未来的NBA三分球平均得分更高，达到37.9％，而2015-2016年的常规赛和季后赛平均得分分别为28.6％和30.9％。第二，结果为评估对方球队的防守对进攻策略的影响提供了一种手段。第三，结果为最终的NBA 2015–2016季后赛系列提供了战略解释，其中CLE击败了GSW。GSW开始接近其预测策略，然后几乎单调地进一步远离，而CLE则更接近其预测策略。已实现的结果与这些战略趋势相关。