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Confounding Bias in the Relationship Between Problem Gambling and Crime
Journal of Gambling Studies ( IF 3.396 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-17 , DOI: 10.1007/s10899-020-09939-0
Christopher R. Dennison , Jessica G. Finkeldey , Gregory C. Rocheleau

Although the relationship between problem gambling and criminal behavior has been widely researched, concerns over the causal nature of this association remain. Some argue that problem gambling does not lead to crime; instead, the same background characteristics that predict problem gambling also predict criminal behavior. Yet, studies suggestive of a spurious association often rely on small, non-random, and cross-sectional samples; thus, the extent to which the findings are generalizable to the broader population is unknown. With this in mind, the present study uses data from The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health and a series of propensity score weighting and matching techniques to examine the role of confounding bias in the relationship between problem gambling and criminal behavior in young adulthood. On the surface, results show a positive and significant relationship between problem gambling and a range of criminal behaviors. However, after statistically balancing differences in several background measures between problem gamblers and non-problem gamblers, such as low self-control, past substance use, and juvenile delinquency, we find no significant relationship between problem gambling and crime. These patterns are consistent across several propensity score weighting and matching algorithms. Our results therefore parallel those in support of the “generality of deviance” framework, whereby a similar set of covariates known to be associated with criminal behavior also predict problem gambling.



中文翻译:

在问题赌博和犯罪之间的关系中存在混淆性偏见

尽管对问题赌博与犯罪行为之间的关系进行了广泛的研究,但对于这种关联的因果关系仍然存在担忧。有些人认为赌博问题不会导致犯罪。相反,预测问题赌博的相同背景特征也预测犯罪行为。然而,暗示虚假关联的研究通常依赖于较小的,非随机的和横截面的样本。因此,尚不清楚该研究结果可推广到更广泛人群的程度。考虑到这一点,本研究使用了《青少年对成人健康的国家纵向研究》的数据以及一系列倾向评分加权和匹配技术,以检验混杂的偏见在青少年成年问题赌博与犯罪行为之间的关系中的作用。在表面上,结果表明,问题赌博与一系列犯罪行为之间存在积极且显着的关系。但是,在统计上解决问题赌徒和无问题赌徒之间的几种背景测量方法之间的差异(例如自我控制力低,既往使用毒品和青少年犯罪)之后,我们发现问题赌博与犯罪之间没有显着关系。这些模式在几种倾向得分加权和匹配算法中是一致的。因此,我们的结果与那些支持“一般性偏差”框架的结果平行,据此,与犯罪行为相关的一组相似的协变量也可以预测问题赌博。在统计上平衡问题赌徒和无问题赌徒之间的几种背景测量方法之间的差异(例如自我控制力低,过往使用毒品和青少年犯罪)之后,我们发现问题赌博与犯罪之间没有显着关系。这些模式在几种倾向得分加权和匹配算法中是一致的。因此,我们的结果与那些支持“一般性偏差”框架的结果平行,据此,与犯罪行为相关的一组相似的协变量也可以预测问题赌博。在统计上平衡问题赌徒和无问题赌徒之间的几种背景测量方法之间的差异(例如自我控制力低,过往使用毒品和青少年犯罪)之后,我们发现问题赌博与犯罪之间没有显着关系。这些模式在几种倾向得分加权和匹配算法中是一致的。因此,我们的结果与那些支持“一般性偏差”框架的结果平行,据此,与犯罪行为相关的一组相似的协变量也可以预测问题赌博。这些模式在几种倾向得分加权和匹配算法中是一致的。因此,我们的结果与那些支持“一般性偏差”框架的结果平行,据此,与犯罪行为相关的一组相似的协变量也可以预测问题赌博。这些模式在几种倾向得分加权和匹配算法中是一致的。因此,我们的结果与那些支持“一般性偏差”框架的结果平行,据此,与犯罪行为相关的一组相似的协变量也可以预测问题赌博。

更新日期:2020-03-17
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