Purpose There are several noteworthy cognitive and identity-based theories of desistance. Yet, there is little understanding about the role of one’s expectations of future events, which are tied to one’s sense of self, as they ultimately inform actions regarding offending. In this study, we test the extent to which optimistic and fatalistic expectations are related to desistance. Methods We rely on negative binomial regression analyses and group-based trajectory modeling of data drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to determine the relationship between future event expectations and criminal engagement. We assess continued criminal involvement through self-reported arrests and offending variety. Results We find that future expectations regarding negative events (arrest, victimization, and drunkenness) are associated with future self-reported arrest while future positive expectations (parenthood, education, and employment) are unrelated to future offending behavior. Higher expectations of being arrested and getting drunk in the following year were associated with a greater likelihood of being classified as a persister relative to a nonoffender. We also find that Blacks are more likely to be classified as persisters. Yet, future expectations in late adolescence appear to be poor predictors of whether an individual will desist from offending over the long term. Conclusions Our results suggest that future fatalistic expectations of a ‘feared self’ are generally associated with short-term offending. Future studies should explore the degree to which expectations and the development of a future self may vary by race and gender and alternative interpretations of the NLSY97 expectation questions.

中文翻译：

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当我长大时：探索未来期望与犯罪轨迹之间的联系

目的有几种值得注意的认知和基于身份的抵制理论。然而，对于一个人对未来事件的期望的作用却知之甚少，而这些事件与一个人的自我意识息息相关，因为它们最终会告知有关违法行为。在这项研究中，我们测试了乐观和宿命的期望与停顿相关的程度。方法我们采用负二项式回归分析和基于群体的轨迹模型来对1997年全国青年纵向调查得出的数据进行确定，以确定未来事件期望与犯罪参与之间的关系。我们通过自我报告的逮捕和犯罪种类评估持续的犯罪参与。结果我们发现，对负面事件（逮捕，受害，和醉酒）与将来的自我报告逮捕有关，而未来的积极期望（父母，教育和就业）与将来的犯罪行为无关。与未犯罪者相比，对来年被捕和醉酒的期望更高，与被归类为持久者的可能性更大。我们还发现，黑人更有可能被归类为坚持者。然而，青春期后期对未来的期望似乎无法很好地预测一个人是否会长期不犯罪。结论我们的结果表明，未来对“恐惧自我”的宿命期望通常与短期犯罪有关。