The Trump administration has declared its determination to resolve the problems posed by North Korea, but a full-scale military intervention would impart a terrible human cost and could ignite a global war. One alternative that might meet the objectives of the USA would be the collapse of the North Korea regime through a domestic uprising. Claims that the regime is teetering on the brink of self-implosion have been made for decades; yet, there has been no popular rebellion to date and this article argues that the prospect of one occurring in the foreseeable future remains remote. Numerous factors exist in North Korea that ought, according to conventional theories of rebellion, to push the population to rebel, including public grievances, opportunities for private gain and regime vulnerability. These drivers are suppressed by the Kim Jong-un regime, however, through the use of isolation, propaganda, deterrence and prevention, which combine to make rebellion extremely improbable. Despite a major military invasion being impractical and the likelihood of a domestic uprising occurring being markedly low, a number of policy alternatives do exist for the Trump administration. Nevertheless, there are no easy answers with North Korea and each course of action possesses significant drawbacks and limitations.

中文翻译：

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金正恩领导下的朝鲜民众叛乱的可能性与美国的政策选择

特朗普政府已宣布决心解决朝鲜带来的问题，但全面的军事干预将带来可怕的人力成本，并可能引发全球战争。可能符合美国目标的另一种选择是通过国内起义使朝鲜政权垮台。数十年来，一直有人声称该政权正处于自我崩溃的边缘。然而，迄今为止还没有流行的叛乱，本文认为在可预见的未来发生叛乱的前景仍然遥不可及。根据传统的反叛理论，朝鲜存在许多因素应该促使民众反叛，包括公众不满、私利机会和政权脆弱性。这些司机被金正恩政权打压，然而，通过使用隔离、宣传、威慑和预防，这些措施相结合使叛乱变得极不可能。尽管大规模的军事入侵是不切实际的，而且发生国内起义的可能性非常低，但特朗普政府确实存在许多政策选择。然而，对朝鲜没有简单的答案，每一个行动方案都有明显的缺点和局限性。