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Civil Conflict and Agenda-Setting Speed in the United Nations Security Council
International Studies Quarterly ( IF 2.799 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-17 , DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaa017
Martin Binder 1 , Jonathan Golub 1
Affiliation  

The UN Security Council (UNSC) can respond to a civil conflict only if that conflict first enters the Council’s agenda. Some conflicts reach the Council’s agenda within days after they start, others after years (or even decades), and some never make it. So far, only a few studies have looked at the crucial UNSC agenda-setting stage, and none have examined agenda-setting speed. To fill this important gap, we develop and test a novel theoretical framework that combines insights from realist and constructivist theory with lessons from institutionalist theory and bargaining theory. Applying survival analysis to an original dataset, we show that the parochial interests of the permanent (P-5) members matter, but they do not determine the Council’s agenda-setting speed. Rather, P-5 interests are constrained by normative considerations and concerns for the Council’s organizational mission arising from the severity of a conflict (in terms of spillover effects and civilian casualties); by the interests of the widely ignored elected members (E-10); and by the degree of preference heterogeneity both among the P-5 and the E-10. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of how the UN works, and they have implications for the UN’s legitimacy.

中文翻译:

联合国安理会的内战和议程制定速度

联合国安理会(UNSC)只有在内战中首先进入安理会议程时,才能对它作出回应。有些冲突在冲突开始后几天之内就达到了安理会的议程,另一些冲突则在数年(甚至数十年)后就达到了安理会的议程,而有些则从未实现。到目前为止,只有很少的研究研究了联合国安理会重要的议程制定阶段,而没有任何研究审查议程制定速度。为了填补这一重要空白,我们开发并测试了一个新颖的理论框架,该框架将来自现实主义和建构主义理论的见解与来自制度主义理论和讨价还价理论的经验相结合。将生存分析应用于原始数据集,我们表明,常任理事国(P-5)的狭interests利益固然重要,但它们并不确定安理会的议程制定速度。相当,P-5的利益受到冲突严重程度(在溢出效应和平民伤亡方面)引起的规范考虑和对安理会组织使命的关注的限制;通过广泛忽视的当选成员(E-10)的利益; 以及P-5和E-10之间的优先程度异质性。我们的发现有助于人们更好地了解联合国的运作方式,并对联合国的合法性产生影响。
更新日期:2020-03-17
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