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The Effects of Political Institutions on the Extensive and Intensive Margins of Trade
International Organization ( IF 5.754 ) Pub Date : 2019-09-25 , DOI: 10.1017/s0020818319000237
In Song Kim , John Londregan , Marc Ratkovic

We present a model of political networks that integrates both the choice of trade partners (the extensive margin) and trade volumes (the intensive margin). Our model predicts that regimes secure in their survival, including democracies as well as some consolidated authoritarian regimes, will trade more on the extensive margin than vulnerable autocracies, which will block trade in products that would expand interpersonal contact among their citizens. We apply a two-stage Bayesian LASSO estimator to detailed measures of institutional features and highly disaggregated product-level trade data encompassing 131 countries over a half century. Consistent with our model, we find that (a) political institutions matter for the extensive margin of trade but not for the intensive margin and (b) the effects of political institutions on the extensive margin of trade vary across products, falling most heavily on those goods that involve extensive interpersonal contact.

中文翻译:

政治制度对广泛和密集贸易边际的影响

我们提出了一个政治网络模型,它整合了贸易伙伴的选择(广泛的边际)和贸易量(密集的边际)。我们的模型预测,包括民主国家和一些巩固的威权政权在内的政权在其生存中得到保障,将比脆弱的专制政体进行更多的广泛贸易,这将阻止产品贸易,从而扩大其公民之间的人际接触。我们将两阶段贝叶斯 LASSO 估计量应用于机构特征的详细测量和包含 131 个国家半个多世纪的高度分类的产品级贸易数据。与我们的模型一致,
更新日期:2019-09-25
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