The steep rise in German house prices in recent years raises the question of whether a speculative bubble has already emerged. Using a modified present-value model, we estimate the size of speculative house price bubbles in the German housing market. We do not find evidence for positive bubble accumulation in recent years, and interpret the current bullish run as reflecting the correction of house prices that have been undervalued for more than 10 years. With house prices close to their fair values as of 2018:Q1, our answer to the question is, ‘Not yet, but it is likely soon’.

中文翻译：

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看一看德国房地产市场：泡沫电话？

近年来德国房价的急剧上涨引发了投机泡沫是否已经出现的问题。使用修改后的现值模型，我们估计了德国房地产市场中投机性房价泡沫的规模。我们没有发现近年来泡沫正积累的证据，并将当前的看涨走势解释为反映了被低估了 10 年以上的房价的修正。由于房价接近 2018 年第一季度的公允价值，我们对这个问题的回答是，“还没有，但可能很快”。