We measure the economic risk of Covid-19 at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the current prevalence of confirmed cases, we use data from 2014-2018 and a conceptual disaster risk model to compute measures for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the local economy to the shock of the epidemic. Using a battery of proxies for these four concepts, we calculate the hazard, the principal components of exposure and vulnerability to it, and of the economy’s resilience (i.e., its ability of the recover rapidly from the shock). We find that the economic risk of this pandemic is particularly high in most of Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. These results are consistent when comparing an ad-hoc equal weighting algorithm for the four components of the index, an algorithm that assumes equal hazard for all countries, and one based on estimated weights using previous aggregated Disability-Adjusted Life Years losses associated with communicable diseases.

中文翻译：

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衡量 COVID-19 的经济风险

我们以详细的地理空间分辨率来衡量 Covid-19 的经济风险。除了有关当前确诊病例流行率的数据外，我们还使用 2014-2018 年的数据和概念性灾害风险模型来计算当地经济对流行病冲击的暴露度、脆弱性和弹性的衡量标准。使用这四个概念的一系列代理，我们计算了风险、风险暴露和脆弱性的主要组成部分，以及经济的弹性（即从冲击中迅速恢复的能力）。我们发现，在撒哈拉以南非洲、南亚和东南亚的大部分地区，这种流行病的经济风险特别高。在比较指数的四个组成部分的临时等权重算法时，这些结果是一致的，