Forthright characterization of scientific uncertainty is important in principle and in practice. Nevertheless, economists and other researchers commonly report findings with incredible certitude, reporting point predictions and estimates. To motivate expression of incredible certitude, economists suggest that researchers respond to incentives that make the practice tempting. This temptation is the ‘lure’ of incredible certitude. I appraise some of the rationales that observers may have in mind when they state that incredible certitude responds to incentives. I conclude that scientific expression of incredible certitude at most has appeal in limited contexts. It should not be a general practice.

中文翻译：

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难以置信的确定性的诱惑

科学不确定性的直接表征在原则和实践中都很重要。然而，经济学家和其他研究人员通常报告调查结果难以置信的确信，报告点预测和估计。为了激发令人难以置信的确定性表达，经济学家建议研究人员对使这种做法很有吸引力的激励措施做出反应。这种诱惑是难以置信的确定性的“诱惑”。我评估了观察者在说令人难以置信的确定性对激励做出反应时可能想到的一些基本原理。我的结论是，难以置信的确定性的科学表达最多在有限的背景下具有吸引力。这不应该是一种普遍的做法。