This study examines the long-term effect of lending rate, exchange rate, inflation, institutional regulatory quality, budget deficit and gross domestic product on financial sector stability, proxied by the behavior of bank credit from 1981 to 2018. Using fully modified ordinary least square technique in an autoregressive distributive lag framework, non-performing loan is directly sensitive to lending rate, budget deficit, inflation rate and gross domestic product growth rate, but negatively related to exchange rate (a proxy for oil price) and institutions’ regulatory quality. The study concludes that macroeconomic risks matter in the live of bank credit, and recommends reforms to promote financial health: focus on capital and securities markets for long-tenured lending, credit market competitiveness to reduce lending rate; improved liberalization of foreign exchange market; ease of doing business and economic inclusion to improve the growth rate.

这项研究考察了1981年至2018年银行信贷行为对贷款利率，汇率，通货膨胀，机构监管质量，预算赤字和国内生产总值对金融部门稳定性的长期影响。在自回归分配滞后框架中，不良贷款对贷款利率，预算赤字，通货膨胀率和国内生产总值增长率直接敏感，但与汇率（代表石油价格）和机构的监管质量负相关。该研究得出结论认为，宏观经济风险对银行信贷活动至关重要，并建议进行改革以促进金融健康：针对长期贷款，重点关注资本和证券市场，降低贷款利率的信贷市场竞争力；加强外汇市场的开放；营商便利和经济包容性提高了增长率。