当前位置: X-MOL 学术National Institute Economic Review › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Maintaining Stable Macroeconomic Conditions
National Institute Economic Review Pub Date : 2019-10-30 , DOI: 10.1177/002795011925000111
Russell Jones , John Llewellyn

Executive SummaryThe UK economy faces more than usually uncertain times. Outside the European Union, and in an increasingly challenging global environment characterised by ageing populations, climate change, populism, protectionism, and more, the country needs to chart a new course. This may well require policymakers to consider unconventional approaches to monetary and fiscal policy and, at the very least argues for important modifications of the current policy regime, including the autonomous mandate of the Bank of England.At some point, there will be a major slowdown in economic activity. Yet the Bank of England has very little leeway to respond by cutting interest rates, and it has already adopted an armoury of unorthodox tools that may be decreasing in effectiveness. More radical monetary approaches would be likely to be politically controversial; and are not without risks. In these circumstances it would be a mistake to rely solely, or even largely, on monetary policy to maintain demand. It would be better to conduct monetary and fiscal policy in tandem, and for discretionary fiscal policy to be required to play a much more active role in demand management than hitherto. This would, for example, imply major extension of the automatic stabilisers and efforts better to calibrate discretionary initiatives with the business cycle.But given the long-term pressures on the public finances, more fundamental changes in the structure of spending and taxation are needed, along with a redrawing of fiscal rules and targets, under independent budgetary oversight. The current, historically low, share in GDP of public spending is itself unsustainable in light of the demand for services of an ageing population; plans should be made to raise it closer to the European average. In the most extreme circumstances it might become necessary to waive the fiscal rules entirely and for the Bank of England directly to underwrite fiscal stimulus in order to sustain aggregate demand. It would be wise for the authorities to consider the options in detail now, while the environment is still relatively stable.

中文翻译:

保持稳定的宏观经济状况

执行摘要英国经济面临着比通常更多的不确定时期。在欧盟之外,在以人口老龄化、气候变化、民粹主义、保护主义等为特征的日益严峻的全球环境中,该国需要制定新的路线。这很可能需要政策制定者考虑非常规的货币和财政政策方法,并且至少主张对当前政策体系进行重要修改,包括英格兰银行的自主授权。在某个时候,将会出现大幅放缓在经济活动中。然而,英格兰银行通过降息做出回应的余地很小,而且它已经采用了一系列可能会降低有效性的非正统工具。更激进的货币政策可能会引起政治争议;并且并非没有风险。在这种情况下,完全甚至主要依靠货币政策来维持需求是错误的。货币政策与财政政策并举会更好,并要求可自由支配的财政政策在需求管理中发挥比以往更积极的作用。例如,这将意味着自动稳定器的重大扩展,并努力更好地根据商业周期调整可自由支配的举措。但鉴于公共财政面临的长期压力,需要对支出和税收结构进行更根本的改变,在独立预算监督下重新制定财政规则和目标。当前,历史最低点,鉴于人口老龄化对服务的需求,公共支出占 GDP 的份额本身是不可持续的;应制定计划使其更接近欧洲平均水平。在最极端的情况下,可能有必要完全放弃财政规则,让英格兰银行直接承担财政刺激以维持总需求。当局现在详细考虑选项是明智的,而环境仍然相对稳定。
更新日期:2019-10-30
down
wechat
bug