This paper analyses the costs and benefits of lockdown policies in the face of COVID-19. What matters for people is the quality and length of lives and one should measure costs and benefits in terms of those things. That raises difficulties in measurement, particularly in valuing potential lives saved. We draw upon guidelines used in the UK for public health decisions, as well as other measures, which allow a comparison between health effects and other economic effects. We look at evidence on the effectiveness of past severe restrictions applied in European countries, focusing on the evidence from the UK. The paper considers policy options for the degree to which restrictions are eased. There is a need to normalise how we view COVID because its costs and risks are comparable to other health problems (such as cancer, heart problems, diabetes) where governments have made resource decisions for decades. The lockdown is a public health policy and we have valued its impact using the tools that guide health care decisions in the UK public health system. The evidence suggests that the costs of continuing severe restrictions in the UK are large relative to likely benefits so that a substantial easing in general restrictions in favour of more targeted measures is warranted.

中文翻译：

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与 COVID-19 一起生活：面对病毒，平衡成本与收益

本文分析了面对 COVID-19 的锁定政策的成本和收益。对人们来说重要的是生命的质量和长度，人们应该根据这些东西来衡量成本和收益。这给衡量带来了困难，特别是在评估可能挽救的生命方面。我们借鉴了英国用于公共卫生决策的指南以及其他措施，这些措施可以比较健康影响和其他经济影响。我们研究了过去在欧洲国家实施的严格限制的有效性的证据，重点关注来自英国的证据。该文件考虑了放宽限制的程度的政策选择。有必要规范我们对 COVID 的看法，因为它的成本和风险与其他健康问题（如癌症、心脏问题、糖尿病），政府几十年来一直在做出资源决策。封锁是一项公共卫生政策，我们使用指导英国公共卫生系统医疗保健决策的工具重视其影响。证据表明，英国继续严格限制的成本相对于可能带来的收益而言是巨大的，因此有必要大幅放宽一般限制以支持更有针对性的措施。