This paper aims to investigate the relationship between residential real estate prices and unemployment rates at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level.,This paper uses a long time-series of MSA-level quarterly data from 1990 to 2018. It uses an instrumental variable approach to estimate the effects of residential real estate prices on unemployment rates using the geography-based land constraints measure of Saiz (2010) as the instrument.,The results show that changes in residential real estate prices do not have a causal effect on unemployment rates in the same quarter. However, it takes 9-12 months for an increase (decrease) in real estate prices to decrease (increase) unemployment rates. This effect is significant during both pre- and post-financial crisis periods and robust to control for the economic characteristics of MSAs.,This paper contributes to the emerging literature that studies the real effects of real estate. Particularly, the methodology and the findings can be used to investigate causal relationships between housing prices and small business development or economic growth. The findings are also of interest to policymakers and practitioners as they illustrate how and when real estate price shocks propagate to the real economy through unemployment rates.,This study’s findings have important implications for academics, policymakers and investors as they provide evidence of a snowball effect associated with shocks to real estate prices: increasing (decreasing) unemployment rates following a decrease (increase) in real estate prices exacerbates the real estate price movements and their economic consequences.,This paper analyzes a significantly longer period, from 1990 to 2018, than the existing literature. Additionally, it uses the MSA-level land unavailability measure of Saiz (2010) as an instrument to explore the effects of residential real estate prices on unemployment rates and when those effects are observed in the real economy.

中文翻译：

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房地产的实际影响：失业率的证据

本文旨在研究大都市统计区（MSA）级别的住宅房地产价格与失业率之间的关系。本文使用了1990年至2018年MSA级别的季度数据的较长时间序列。以Saiz（2010）的基于地理的土地约束度量为工具来估计住宅房地产价格对失业率的影响的方法。结果表明，住宅房地产价格的变化对失业率没有因果关系在同一季度。但是，房地产价格的上升（减少）需要9到12个月的时间才能减少（增加）失业率。在金融危机之前和之后的危机时期，这种影响都很显着，而且对于控制MSA的经济特征也很有效。本文为研究房地产实际效应的新兴文献做出了贡献。特别是，该方法和发现可用于调查房价与小企业发展或经济增长之间的因果关系。决策者和从业者也对研究结果感兴趣，因为它们说明了房地产价格冲击如何以及何时通过失业率传播到实体经济。该研究结果对学者，决策者和投资者具有重要意义，因为它们提供了滚雪球效应的证据。与房地产价格的冲击有关：房地产价格下降（增加）后失业率上升（下降）加剧了房地产价格变动及其经济后果。本文分析了更长的时间，从1990年到2018年，超过了现有文献。此外，它还使用了Saiz（2010）的MSA级土地不可用度度量方法来探讨住宅房地产价格对失业率的影响以及在实体经济中观察到的影响。