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Does Exchange Rate Have Asymmetric Impact on Trade Balance? Fresh Insights from Combined Cointegration
Studies in Business and Economics Pub Date : 2020-04-01 , DOI: 10.2478/sbe-2020-0019
Solomon Prince Nathaniel 1
Affiliation  

Abstract The study examines the asymmetric impact of exchange rate on the trade balance in Nigeria relying of time series data that spans 1960-2016. The Non-linear ARDL bounds test and the Bayer and Hanck (2013) test established a cointegrating relationship among the variables after accounting for structural break in the series. The Block Exogeneity Wald Tests affirmed the bidirectional causality between the variables. Findings establish the asymmetric impact of exchange rate on the trade balance in Nigeria, but unable to confirm the existence of the J-curve Phenomenon. This reveals that the devaluation of the Naira may not be a viable decision if the intention is to curb the persistent deficit in the country’s trade balance. Policies that could help curtail these deficits and enhance sustainable growth were suggested.

中文翻译:

汇率对贸易平衡是否有非对称影响?联合协整的新见解

摘要这项研究使用时间跨度为1960-2016的数据检验了汇率对尼日利亚贸易平衡的不对称影响。非线性ARDL边界检验和Bayer and Hanck(2013)检验在考虑了序列中的结构性断裂之后,在变量之间建立了协整关系。块外生性Wald检验确认了变量之间的双向因果关系。调查结果确定了汇率对尼日利亚贸易平衡的不对称影响,但无法确定J曲线现象的存在。这表明,如果要遏制该国贸易差额的持续赤字,奈拉贬值可能不是一个可行的决定。提出了有助于减少这些赤字并促进可持续增长的政策。
更新日期:2020-04-01
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