The purpose of the study is to re-examine the issue of the crowding-in/out effect of public investment on private investment by adopting an improved methodology of the ‘nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag’ (NARDL) model. Taking data from 1970 to 2016, the study finds that public investment crowds-in private investment both in the long-run as well as the short-run. However, the short-run elasticity is statistically more significant and larger in magnitude than the long-run elasticity. It has also been found that macroeconomic uncertainty significantly affects private investment both in the long-run and the short-run. Among other determinants of private investment, we observe foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, credit flow to the private sector, household savings, real rate of interest and expected output affect private investment significantly. The policy implication of the study calls for the designing of public sector policies that enthuse more private investments. More credit flow to private sectors and FDI in different sectors of the economy should be prioritized.

JEL Codes: E22, H54, C32

该研究的目的是通过采用“非线性自回归分布滞后”（NARDL）模型的改进方法，重新研究公共投资对私人投资的挤入/挤出效应的问题。该研究从1970年至2016年的数据中发现，无论长期还是短期，公共投资都挤满了私人投资。但是，与长期弹性相比，短期弹性在统计上更为显着且大小更大。我们还发现，宏观经济的不确定性无论从长期还是短期都对私人投资产生重大影响。在私人投资的其他决定因素中，我们观察到外国直接投资（FDI）的流入，对私人部门的信贷流，家庭储蓄，实际利率和预期产出会严重影响私人投资。该研究的政策含义要求设计公共部门的政策，以鼓励更多的私人投资。应优先考虑将更多的信贷流向私营部门和经济中不同部门的外国直接投资。

JEL代码： E22，H54，C32