This article analyses the causes of low intra-regional trade connections within South Asia, which have remained disappointing despite the long-awaited launch of the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) on 6 January 2004 in Islamabad. Analysis of World Bank data and other relevant sources for the period 1995–2018 shows that trade among SAFTA members has not increased as significantly as had been hoped. The statistical analysis undertaken confirms what was suspected by many observers, as it shows that the SAFTA countries are not actually natural trading partners. Rather they are often competitors, seeking to export the same product groups. Since this makes the prospects of future substantial increase in mutual trade unlikely, the article concludes with some reflections about how to strengthen regional trade support mechanisms.

中文翻译：

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南亚内部贸易：不切实际的期望

本文分析了南亚区域内贸易联系低的原因，尽管期待已久的南亚自由贸易区 (SAFTA) 于 2004 年 1 月 6 日在伊斯兰堡启动，但仍然令人失望。对世界银行 1995 年至 2018 年期间数据和其他相关来源的分析表明，SAFTA 成员之间的贸易并没有像预期的那样显着增长。进行的统计分析证实了许多观察员的怀疑，因为它表明 SAFTA 国家实际上并不是天然的贸易伙伴。相反，他们通常是竞争对手，寻求出口相同的产品组。鉴于这使得未来相互贸易大幅增长的前景不太可能，本文最后对如何加强区域贸易支持机制进行了一些思考。