Criminal groups often avoid the limelight, shunning publicity. However, in some instances, they overtly communicate, such as with banners or signs. This article explains the competition dynamics behind public criminal communication and provides theory and evidence of the conditions under which it emerges. Relying on a new dataset of approximately 1,800 banners publicly deployed by Mexican criminal groups from 2007 to 2010, the study identifies the conditions behind such messaging. The findings suggest that criminal groups “go public” in the presence of interorganizational contestation, violence from authorities, antagonism toward the local media, local demand for drugs, and local drug production. Some of these factors are associated only with communication toward particular audiences: rivals, the state, or the public. An interesting finding is that the correlates of criminal propaganda are sometimes distinct from those of criminal violence, suggesting that these phenomena are explained by separate dynamics.

中文翻译：

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Narco-Messages：犯罪集团的竞争和公共传播

犯罪集团往往避开聚光灯，回避宣传。但是，在某些情况下，他们会公开交流，例如使用横幅或标志。本文解释了公共犯罪传播背后的竞争动态，并提供了其出现条件的理论和证据。该研究依靠墨西哥犯罪集团从 2007 年到 2010 年公开部署的大约 1,800 个横幅的新数据集，确定了此类信息背后的条件。调查结果表明，犯罪集团在存在组织间竞争、当局暴力、对当地媒体的敌对、当地对毒品的需求和当地毒品生产的情况下“公开”。其中一些因素仅与针对特定受众的沟通相关：竞争对手、国家或公众。