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A Multi‐Transition Approach to Evaluating Peacekeeping Effectiveness
Kyklos ( IF 1.796 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-28 , DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12250
Wukki Kim , Todd Sandler , Hirofumi Shimizu

Past studies of the effectiveness of peacekeeping operations (PKOs) mainly focus on the preservation of peace. If the transitions from peace to conflict or from conflict to peace are correlated based on grievances or war weariness, then a multi‐transition survival analysis provides more efficient estimates and may limit bias. Our main analysis for 133 country‐based conflicts during 1990–2016 shows that estimates of the two transitions display a significant negative covariance, consistent with grievances and the need for a multi‐transition approach. As a robustness check, we match UN PKOs with the absence of UN PKOs to address nonrandom assignments of PKOs. For the matched and unmatched estimates, we find that UN peace enforcement missions induce a transition from conflict to peace, while UN observation, traditional peacekeeping, and peacebuilding missions limit a transition from peace to conflict. We also show that UN troops, rather than UN police, are more effective in transitioning from conflict to peace and in maintaining peace after conflict. Further robustness runs for alternative subsamples (e.g., just civil wars) support the main results. Our findings indicate the appropriate UN PKO mission type and personnel mix to deploy depending on the conflict’s current state.

中文翻译:

评估维和效力的多阶段过渡方法

过去对维和行动(PKO)有效性的研究主要集中在维护和平上。如果从和平过渡到冲突或从冲突过渡到和平基于不满或战争厌倦是相关的,那么多过渡生存分析提供更有效的估计并可能限制偏差。我们对 1990 年至 2016 年期间 133 起国家冲突的主要分析表明,对两次转变的估计显示出显着的负协方差,这与不满和对多重转变方法的需求一致。作为稳健性检查,我们将联合国维和行动与没有联合国维和行动的情况相匹配,以解决维和行动的非随机分配问题。对于匹配和不匹配的估计,我们发现联合国维和任务导致从冲突到和平的过渡,而联合国观察、传统维和、和建设和平任务限制了从和平向冲突的过渡。我们还表明,在从冲突过渡到和平以及在冲突后维持和平方面,联合国军队比联合国警察更有效。替代子样本(例如,仅内战)的进一步稳健性运行支持主要结果。我们的调查结果表明,根据冲突的当前状态,适当的联合国维和行动任务类型和人员组合可以部署。
更新日期:2020-07-28
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