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Financial inclusion and business cycles
Journal of Financial Economic Policy Pub Date : 2020-08-03 , DOI: 10.1108/jfep-02-2020-0021
Peterson K. Ozili

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the relationship between financial inclusion and the business cycle.

Design/methodology/approach

Regression methodology is used to analyze the association between financial inclusion and the business cycle.

Findings

Using regression estimation, the findings reveal that the level of savings and the number of active formal account ownership are pro-cyclical with fluctuations in the business cycle. Also, savings by adults particularly for women and poor people declines during recessionary periods while the number of active formal account ownership declines for the adult population especially for women during recessionary periods. The findings also reveal that not all indicators of financial inclusion are pro-cyclical with fluctuating business cycles.

Practical implications

The implication of this observed pro-cyclical effect is that individuals and households will exit the formal financial sector during a recession, as banks become unwilling to lend money to individuals and households during bad times and this will lead to financial exclusion and vice versa. Policymakers seeking to increase the level of financial inclusion in their countries should focus on the timing of financial inclusion policies along the business cycle as the findings suggest that it might be more difficult to achieve financial inclusion objectives during recessions or periods of economic downturns.

Originality/value

The current debate on financial inclusion pays little attention to whether financial inclusion is pro-cyclical with the fluctuating business cycle. This study explores the association between financial inclusion and the business cycle.



中文翻译:

金融包容性和商业周期

目的

本研究旨在调查金融普惠性与商业周期之间的关系。

设计/方法/方法

回归方法用于分析金融普惠性与商业周期之间的关联。

发现

使用回归估计,发现表明储蓄水平和有效的正式帐户所有权数量是周期性的,并且随着商业周期的波动而变化。同样,在经济衰退时期,成年人的储蓄,尤其是妇女和穷人的储蓄减少,而在经济衰退时期,成年人的活跃正式账户拥有量下降,尤其是妇女。调查结果还表明,并非所有的金融普惠指标都随经济周期的波动而呈周期性。

实际影响

这种观察到的顺周期效应的含义是,在经济衰退期间,个人和家庭将退出正规金融部门,因为银行在不景气时期不愿向个人和家庭放贷,这将导致金融排斥,反之亦然。寻求提高本国金融普惠水平的决策者应关注整个经济周期内金融普惠政策的时机,因为调查结果表明,在经济衰退或经济衰退时期,实现金融普惠目标可能会更加困难。

创意/价值

当前有关金融普惠性的争论很少关注金融普惠性是否随商业周期的波动而呈周期性。这项研究探讨了金融普惠与商业周期之间的关联。

更新日期:2020-08-03
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