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The size-growth relationship: a test of house price growth across the regions of the British Isles
Journal of European Real Estate Research Pub Date : 2020-06-18 , DOI: 10.1108/jerer-10-2019-0033
David Gray

Purpose (mandatory) It is proposed that a Neave-Worthington Match Test for Ordered Alternatives is a simple, non-parametric test that can be used to consider Gibrat’s law. Whether the law, that states that the proportional rate of growth is independent of absolute size, is supported by regional house price growth rates is considered. The Match Test is further used to test the applicability of beta-convergence and dual economy models to a house price context. Design/methodology/approach (mandatory) The Match Test relates an actual rank-order with an expected one. Gibrat’s law implies house price growth rates are independent of the absolute price levels. Beta-convergence posits that growth rates are inversely related to the initial price level. With a divergent system there is a direct relationship between size-order and growth rates. As such, the Match test is used to test alternative models of size-growth relationship. Findings (mandatory) Rather than convergence, there is a tendency to diverge across the UK, but not in Eire. That said, the size of growth shocks is related to price level on the upswing of a price cycle, but not in the down. Assigning the high-priced regions of the two islands into core and the rest into a periphery, total matching is dominated by the capital cities’ growth. The sigma-convergence observed in British house prices is likely to be associated with slower beta-divergence, not a convergent system. The law of Gibrat is not found to apply in a regional house price context. Research limitations/implications (if applicable) This work only covers two countries and nineteen regions. Gibrat’s law in regional house prices may be better examined using a multi-country analysis. Practical implications (if applicable) As the law of Gibrat is not found to apply in a regional house price context and core-regions appearing to dislocated, this has interesting implications for growth trend analysis and the claim of cointegration, which should be explored further. In particular, the level-growth relationship in the cyclical price upswing points to a ratcheting of differentials between high and low house price regions. The common trends in the long run may result from corrective periodic crashes. Not an ideal mechanism for policy makers. Social implications (if applicable) Originality/value (mandatory) This paper makes a novel use of the Neave-Worthington test in the realm of regional convergence-divergence and in the first consideration of the law of Gibrat in a house price context across two countries.

中文翻译:

规模增长关系:对不列颠群岛地区房价增长的检验

目的(强制性)建议有序替代项的Neave-Worthington匹配检验是一种简单的非参数检验,可用于考虑吉布拉特定律。是否考虑了表明比例增长率与绝对规模无关的法律是否受到区域房价增长率的支持。匹配测试还用于测试贝塔收敛和双重经济模型在房价环境中的适用性。设计/方法/方法(强制性)匹配测试将实际排名与预期排名相关联。吉布拉特定律意味着房价增长率与绝对价格水平无关。Beta收敛假设增长率与初始价格水平成反比。对于不同的系统,规模顺序与增长率之间存在直接关系。因此,匹配测试用于测试大小增长关系的替代模型。调查结果(强制性)在英国,而不是在爱尔兰,趋向于发散而不是趋同。也就是说,增长冲击的规模与价格周期上升时的价格水平相关,而与下降时的价格水平无关。将这两个岛屿的高价区域划分为核心区域,将其余两个区域划分为外围区域,总体匹配程度由首府城市的增长决定。英国房价中的sigma趋同可能与β趋缓有关,而不是趋同系统。吉布拉特法律不适用于区域房价。研究的局限性/意义(如果适用)这项工作仅涉及两个国家和十九个地区。使用多国分析可以更好地研究吉布拉特地区房价的定律。实际含义(如果适用)由于吉卜拉特定律在区域房价环境中并不适用,并且核心区域似乎错位,因此这对增长趋势分析和协整要求具有有趣的含义,应进一步探讨。特别是,周期性价格上涨中的水平-增长关系表明高房价区域和低房价区域之间的差异不断增大。从长远来看,共同的趋势可能是由定期纠正性崩溃引起的。对于决策者而言,这不是理想的机制。
更新日期:2020-06-18
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