Mark Twain is reputed to have remarked that history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. While the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–2009 was not a catastrophe on the order of World War I, there is a broad similarity in the sequelae to both of these events—a failed attempt to return to pre-trauma normalcy, followed by a process of international economic disintegration in the face of changed geopolitical realities. In this essay, I explore three questions that this similarity raises. Does globalization inherently foster domestic or international dynamics that eventually lead to political backlash? If so, are these dynamics inevitable, or can complementary economic policies nurture a stable globalization? And finally, since policies are endogenous, when are policy approaches and institutions that complement and support globalization likely to arise?

中文翻译：

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全球化周期

马克·吐温（Mark Twain）曾说过，历史不会重演，但常常会押韵。虽然2008年至2009年的全球金融危机不是第一次世界大战造成的灾难，但后遗症与这两种事件都有着广泛的相似之处–试图恢复到创伤前的正常状态的失败尝试，接着是一个过程面对不断变化的地缘政治现实的国际经济瓦解。在本文中，我探讨了这种相似性提出的三个问题。全球化是否会固有地促进国内或国际动态，最终导致政治反弹？如果是这样，这些动态是不可避免的，还是互补的经济政策可以培育稳定的全球化？最后，由于政策是内生的，