NATO’s enlargement into Central and Eastern Europe after the Cold War is the subject of significant debate in academic and policy circles. With few exceptions, however, this debate focuses on single issues, such as whether enlargement led to the decline of the West’s relations with Russia. In this framing document, we look to expand the debate. We do so by sequentially reviewing the process by which NATO enlarged, outlining the array of issue areas within which to assess the consequences of NATO enlargement, and highlighting the particular importance of counterfactual analysis to any judgment of enlargement’s legacy. Building on a May 2019 workshop at Boston University, we also summarize the results of several articles that collectively evaluate the consequence of expansion for the USA, Russia, non-US NATO members, and the organization itself. Finally, we conclude by outlining elements of a broader research program on the aftereffects of NATO enlargement.

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评估北约的扩大：学术辩论，政策影响和未走的路

冷战后北约向中欧和东欧的扩张是学术界和政策界争论的主题。但是，除了少数例外，这场辩论只针对单个问题，例如扩大是否导致西方与俄罗斯的关系下降。在此框架文档中，我们希望扩大辩论范围。为此，我们依次审查了北约扩大的过程，概述了评估北约扩大后果的一系列议题领域，并强调了反事实分析对任何关于扩大遗产的判断的特殊重要性。在2019年5月在波士顿大学举行的研讨会的基础上，我们还总结了几篇文章的结果，共同评估了美国，俄罗斯，非美国北约成员以及该组织自身扩张的后果。