We quantify the importance of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) for capital flows. We use capital flow data disaggregated by direction and type between 1990Q1 and 2015Q4 for 85 countries, and conventional techniques, models and metrics. Since the GFCy is unobservable, we use two methods to represent it: directly observable variables in center economies often linked to it, such as the VIX, and indirect manifestations, proxied by common dynamic factors extracted from actual capital flows. Our evidence seems mostly inconsistent with a significant and conspicuous GFCy for capital flows; both methods combined rarely explain more than a quarter of the variation for most types of capital flows, in most countries, for most of the time. Succinctly, most variation in capital flows does not seem to be the result of common shocks nor stem from observables in a central country like the USA.

中文翻译：

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全球金融周期有多重要？资金流动的证据

我们量化了全球金融周期（GFCy）对于资本流动的重要性。我们使用1990年1季度至2015年4季度之间按方向和类型分类的资本流动数据，涵盖85个国家/地区，以及常规技术，模型和指标。由于GFCy是不可观察的，因此我们使用两种方法来表示它：通常与之相关的中心经济体中的直接可观察变量（例如VIX）和间接表现（以从实际资本流动中提取的常见动态因素为代表）。我们的证据似乎与资本流动的重大而显着的GFCy不一致。在大多数国家/地区，大多数时间里，两种方法的结合很少能解释大多数类型资本流动的四分之一以上。简而言之，