We provide a quantitative assessment of both the aggregate and the distributional effects of revoking NAFTA using a multi-country, multi-sector, multi-factor model of world production and trade with global input–output linkages. Revoking NAFTA would reduce US welfare by about 0.2%, and Canadian and Mexican welfare by about 2%. The distributional impacts of revoking NAFTA across workers in different sectors are an order of magnitude larger in all three countries, ranging from − 2.7 to 2.23% in the USA. We combine the quantitative results with information on the geographic distribution of sectoral employment, and compute average real wage changes in each US congressional district, Mexican state, and Canadian province. We then examine the political correlates of the economic effects. Congressional district-level real wage changes are negatively correlated with the Trump vote share in 2016: districts that voted more for Trump would on average experience greater real wage reductions if NAFTA is revoked.

中文翻译：

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撤销NAFTA的经济学和政治学

我们使用具有全球投入产出联系的世界生产和贸易的多国，多部门，多因素模型，对撤销NAFTA的总体和分配效应进行了定量评估。取消北美自由贸易协定将使美国的福利减少约0.2％，加拿大和墨西哥的福利减少约2％。在所有三个国家中，撤销NAFTA对不同行业工人的分布影响要大一个数量级，在美国范围从− 2.7到2.23％。我们将定量结果与有关部门就业的地理分布信息相结合，并计算每个美国国会地区，墨西哥州和加拿大省的平均实际工资变化。然后，我们研究经济影响的政治关联。