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Projecting the spread of COVID-19 for Germany
German Economic Review ( IF 1.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-26 , DOI: 10.1515/ger-2020-0031
Jean Roch Donsimoni 1 , René Glawion 2 , Bodo Plachter 3 , Klaus Wälde 1, 4, 5
Affiliation  

Abstract We model the evolution of the number of individuals reported sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or despite infection but without symptoms, and deceased. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in Germany in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end date of the CoV-2 epidemic.

中文翻译:

预测COVID-19在德国的普及

摘要我们模拟了德国报告的COVID-19患病人数的演变。我们的理论框架建立在具有四个状态的连续时间马尔可夫链上:健康无感染,生病,康复后健康或有感染但无症状但已死亡。我们的定量解决方案根据最近的观察结果匹配患病个体的数量,并根据感染率和患病概率得出患病个体的比例。我们使用此框架来研究在没有公共关系社会监管的情况下德国患病人数预期的峰值。我们还研究了公共法规的影响。对于所有情况,我们报告CoV-2流行病的预计结束日期。
更新日期:2020-06-26
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