Abstract From 2014 until present, housing prices in Germany have been rising faster than consumer prices in all quarters except one, raising concerns about an excessive overheating of the housing market. To assess the vulnerability of the German housing market to a future realignment of prices or even a housing bust, this paper develops a housing price misalignment indicator that is composed of seven indicators, which are commonly associated with the fundamental value of residential property. An empirical application to the most recent data suggests that the German housing market exhibits an overvaluation of approximately 11%, where interest rate risk and a relatively advanced stage of the housing cycle are identified as the main factors fueling these imbalances, while a rather solid debt-servicing capacity mitigates these imbalances since end-2009.

中文翻译：

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一种新颖的德国房屋价格失调指标

摘要从2014年至今，德国的房价在所有季度中的上涨速度均快于居民价格，这引起了人们对住房市场过度过热的担忧。为了评估德国住房市场对未来价格调整甚至是房地产泡沫破裂的脆弱性，本文开发了一种由七个指标组成的住房价格失调指标，这些指标通常与住宅物业的基本价值相关。对最新数据的经验应用表明，德国住房市场的高估率约为11％，其中利率风险和住房周期的相对较高阶段被认为是助长这些失衡的主要因素，