Abstract In this paper, we investigate whether differences exist among forecasts using real-time or latest-available data to predict gross domestic product (GDP). We employ mixed-frequency models and real-time data to reassess the role of surveys and financial data relative to industrial production and orders in Germany. Although we find evidence that forecast characteristics based on real-time and final data releases differ, we also observe minimal impacts on the relative forecasting performance of indicator models. However, when obtaining the optimal combination of soft and hard data, the use of final release data may understate the role of survey information.

中文翻译：

---

预报员是否应该使用实时数据评估GDP预测的领先指标模型？德国证据

摘要在本文中，我们调查了使用实时数据或最新数据预测国内生产总值（GDP）的预测之间是否存在差异。我们采用混合频率模型和实时数据来重新评估与德国工业生产和订单相关的调查和财务数据的作用。尽管我们发现有证据表明基于实时和最终数据发布的预测特征有所不同，但我们也观察到对指标模型的相对预测性能的影响很小。但是，当获得软数据和硬数据的最佳组合时，使用最终发布数据可能会低估调查信息的作用。