Abstract From 2003 to 2018, employment in Germany increased by 7.3 million, or by 19.3 % – growth not observed since unification. This “labor market miracle” was marked by a persistent and significant expansion of both part-time and low-wage jobs and a deterioration in pay for these jobs, while total hours hardly increased; overall wage growth returned only after 2011. These developments followed in the wake of the landmark Hartz reforms (2003–2005). A modified framework of Katz and Murphy (1992) predicts negative correlation of wages with both relative employment and participation across cells in the period following these reforms. In contrast, wage moderation alone should generate positive association of wages and participation. Our findings are most consistent with a persistent, positive labor supply shock at given working-age population in a cleared labor market. An alternative perspective of labor markets, the search and matching model, also points to the Hartz IV reforms as the central driver of the German labor market miracle.

中文翻译：

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重新评估德国劳动力市场奇迹

摘要从2003年到2018年，德国的就业人数增长了730万，增长了19.3％，这是自统一以来未出现的增长。这种“劳动力市场奇迹”的特点是，兼职和低薪工作持续不断地大量增加，这些工作的薪资下降，而总工时却几乎没有增加。总体工资增长仅在2011年之后才恢复。这些变化是在具有里程碑意义的Hartz改革（2003-2005年）之后出现的。经过改进的Katz和Murphy（1992）的框架预测，在这些改革之后的时期内，工资与相对就业和跨部门参与之间均呈负相关。相反，仅工资节制应会产生工资与参与的正相关关系。我们的发现最符合持久性，在一个清洁的劳动力市场中，给定劳动年龄人口的劳动力供给受到积极冲击。劳动力市场的另一视角，即搜索和匹配模型，也指出了哈茨四世的改革是德国劳动力市场奇迹的主要驱动力。