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Impact of public and private sector external debt on economic growth: the case of Portugal
Eurasian Economic Review Pub Date : 2020-09-10 , DOI: 10.1007/s40822-020-00153-2
Jorge Silva

External debt may affect economic growth differently among countries. We assess the effect of the Portuguese external debt for the 1999–2019 period. Portugal had the highest net external debt among the founding members of the euro area. External debt was the main component of the international investment position. We split external debt between public and private sectors due to the different conditions that exist when accessing external funding. Additionally, we use quarterly data and estimate how external debt determined variations in the channels of transmission through which external debt may affect economic growth. Only some channels were significantly affected by external debt: the private and public external debt increased public investment, and private external debt damaged private investment. Therefore, external debt was not allocated to positively and significantly increase economic growth. Additionally, financial integration in the euro area and financial stress in Europe affected some channels of transmission. It would be advisable to reduce external debt through a positive current account, to assign external debt to tradable sectors that will obtain a higher return on investments, and to shift external funding from debt instruments to equity ones.



中文翻译:

公共和私营部门外债对经济增长的影响:葡萄牙为例

外债可能对国家之间的经济增长产生不同的影响。我们评估了1999-2019年葡萄牙外债的影响。葡萄牙是欧元区创始成员国中外债净额最高的国家。外债是国际投资头寸的主要组成部分。由于获得外部资金时存在的不同条件,我们将公共部门和公共部门之间的外部债务进行了划分。此外,我们使用季度数据估算外债如何确定外债可能影响经济增长的传播渠道的变化。只有一些渠道受到外债的严重影响:私人和公共外债增加了公共投资,私人外债破坏了私人投资。所以,外债没有分配给积极的和显着的经济增长。此外,欧元区的金融一体化和欧洲的金融压力影响了一些传播渠道。建议通过正的经常账户减少外债,将外债分配给将获得更高投资收益的可交易部门,并将外来资金从债务工具转移到权益工具。

更新日期:2020-09-10
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