What is the relative importance of Russia and Western European countries on Central and East European and Baltic (CEE-Baltic) countries? This paper tries to address this question by quantifying and comparing the spillover effects of growth and trade shocks coming out of Russia and five major Western European countries on ten CEE-Baltic countries by using a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model. In constructing the foreign variables, a time-varying trade weight is used instead of a fixed weight in order to take account of the financial crisis of 2007–2008 and the recent economic sanctions on Russia. The results show that growth spillover effects are strong in the region. However, shocks to Russia have higher and persistent spillover effects on CEE-Baltic countries compared to shocks to Western European countries. Spillover effects of growth shocks also show that Russia is affected more by Western European countries than the other way round. Trade balance shocks, on the other hand, do not play an important role in this transmission process.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯和西欧国家向中东欧波罗的海国家传播经济冲击

俄罗斯和西欧国家在中东欧和波罗的海（CEE-Baltic）国家中的相对重要性是什么？本文试图通过使用全球矢量自回归（GVAR）模型，量化和比较俄罗斯和五个西欧主要国家的增长和贸易冲击对十个中东欧波罗的海国家的溢出效应，来解决这个问题。在构造外部变量时，使用时变贸易权重而不是固定权重，以便考虑到2007-2008年的金融危机以及最近对俄罗斯的经济制裁。结果表明，该地区的增长溢出效应很强。但是，与对西欧国家的冲击相比，对俄罗斯的冲击对中东欧-波罗的海国家产生了更高且持续的溢出效应。增长冲击的溢出效应也表明，俄罗斯受西欧国家的影响要大于反之。另一方面，贸易平衡冲击在这一传导过程中并不发挥重要作用。