ABSTRACT

Precariousness in working life is a rising concern in Europe, but scant statistical evidence exists as to the prevalence and development of longstanding precarious employment. Using high-quality individual-level population-wide register data across several decades, this study addresses this issue in Norway and Sweden. Longstanding precarious attachment to the labour market was defined as low/marginal work income during eight years, with frequent substantial income drops and/or reliance on income maintenance schemes. In the core working-age population, 15.3 percent in Norway and 20.0 percent in Sweden had this employment attachment during 1996–2003. Women, low educated, and foreign-born were at higher risk. Contrary to expectations, in 2008–2015, longstanding precarious attachment had declined to 12.7 percent in Norway and 14.5 percent in Sweden. Women in particular, but also immigrants, had attained stronger labour market attachment in the latter period. These results could indicate that key welfare state elements such as trade union strength, strong employment protection and active labour market policies have been successful in shielding workers from negative labour market developments. However, certain population categories with particularly high risk of precarious employment, such as young adults and short-term and undocumented immigrants, have not been analysed by this study.

摘要

工作生活中的不稳定在欧洲越来越受到关注，但关于长期不稳定就业的流行和发展的统计证据很少。本研究使用几十年来高质量的个人层面的全人口登记数据，在挪威和瑞典解决了这个问题。对劳动力市场的长期不稳定依恋被定义为八年间的低/边际工作收入，收入经常大幅下降和/或依赖收入维持计划。在核心工作年龄人口中，1996-2003 年期间，挪威 15.3% 和瑞典 20.0% 有这种就业依恋。女性、受教育程度低和外国出生的女性面临更高的风险。与预期相反，在 2008-2015 年，长期不稳定的依恋在挪威下降到 12.7%，在瑞典下降到 14.5%。尤其是妇女，还有移民，在后一时期获得了更强的劳动力市场依恋。这些结果可能表明，关键的福利国家要素，如工会力量、强有力的就业保护和积极的劳动力市场政策，已经成功地保护了工人免受劳动力市场负面发展的影响。然而，本研究并未分析某些不稳定就业风险特别高的人群类别，例如年轻人和短期和无证移民。强有力的就业保护和积极的劳动力市场政策成功地保护了工人免受劳动力市场不利发展的影响。然而，本研究并未分析某些不稳定就业风险特别高的人群类别，例如年轻人和短期和无证移民。强有力的就业保护和积极的劳动力市场政策成功地保护了工人免受劳动力市场不利发展的影响。然而，本研究并未分析某些不稳定就业风险特别高的人群类别，例如年轻人和短期和无证移民。