ABSTRACT

Financial scenario modelling appears to offer the potential to help universities cope with an uncertain funding environment. By means of a questionnaire survey of UK universities, supported by interviews with members of finance departments, this paper explores the prevalence and construction of financial models used for scenario analysis. According to the findings, most universities undertake such modelling; but a minority do not, even though it is officially required. There is some variation in the purposes for which the models are constructed and in the sophistication of the approaches taken, but the overall impression is of a relatively straightforward approach, with spreadsheets generally viewed as having sufficient functionality to meet current strategic needs. There is no appetite for a standard template to be imposed or even offered by the funding councils. Sharing experience is likely to be a more welcome approach if growing pressures prompt finance departments to strengthen their modelling.

摘要

金融情景建模似乎提供了帮助大学应对不确定的资金环境的潜力。本文通过对英国大学的问卷调查，并辅以金融部门成员的访谈，探讨了用于情景分析的金融模型的普遍性和构建。根据调查结果，大多数大学都进行了这种建模；但少数人不这样做，即使它是官方要求的。在构建模型的目的和所采用方法的复杂性方面存在一些差异，但总体印象是一种相对简单的方法，通常认为电子表格具有足够的功能来满足当前的战略需求。资助委员会没有兴趣强加甚至提供标准模板。如果不断增长的压力促使财务部门加强建模，分享经验可能是一种更受欢迎的方法。