This paper explores the influence of government expenditures on the business cycle dynamics of a small transition country such as Vietnam. We develop a comprehensive stochastic-growth DSGE model where government consumption may affect households’ utility function, and there is habit persistence in consumption and endogenous private capital utilisation. Two fiscal shocks are considered in addition to shocks to households’ preferences and technological progress. The estimated DSGE model adequately captures the dynamics of Vietnam’s economy and is helpful to uncover a diversity of findings. First, public investment was an important driver of Vietnam’s high output growth in the early-to-mid 1990s, although its contribution decreased during the 2000s. Second, government expenditures explain, respectively, up to 30% and 20% of Vietnamese output variations in the long and short run. Third, impulse–response functions reveal a 3% GDP cumulative 5-year gain from a public investment shock of 1% GDP. Fourth, simulation analysis of different fiscal policies unveils a significant and positive impact of productive public investment by crowding in private investment.

本文探讨了政府支出对像越南这样的小转型国家经济周期动态的影响。我们开发了一个综合的随机增长DSGE模型，其中政府消费可能会影响家庭的效用函数，并且在消费和内源性私人资本利用方面存在着持续的习惯。除了对家庭偏好和技术进步的冲击之外，还考虑了两次财政冲击。估计的DSGE模型可以充分反映越南经济的动态，并有助于发现各种发现。首先，公共投资是1990年代初至中期越南高产量增长的重要驱动力，尽管其贡献在2000年代下降了。其次，政府支出分别说明 从长远来看，越南产量变化的比例高达30％和20％。第三，冲激响应函数表明，公共投资冲击GDP为1％时，五年内GDP累计增长了3％。第四，对不同财政政策的模拟分析揭示了通过吸引私人投资而产生的生产性公共投资的重大而积极的影响。