Summary Anthropogenic climate change produces two conceptually distinct negative economic externalities. The first is an expected path of climate damage. The second, the focus of this paper, is an expected path of economic risk. To isolate the climate-risk problem, we consider three mean-zero, symmetric shocks in our 12-period, overlapping generations model. These shocks impact dirty energy usage (carbon emissions), the relationship between carbon concentration and temperature and the connection between temperature and damages. By construction, our model exhibits a de minimis climate problem absent its shocks. However, due to non-linearities, symmetric shocks deliver negatively skewed impacts, including the potential for climate disasters. As we show, Pareto-improving carbon taxation can dramatically lower climate risk, in general, and disaster risk, in particular. The associated climate-risk tax, which is focused exclusively on limiting climate risk, can be as large as, or larger than, the carbon average-damage tax, which is focused exclusively on limiting average damage.

中文翻译：

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帕累托改进碳风险税

总结 人为气候变化产生了两个概念上截然不同的负面经济外部性。首先是气候破坏的预期路径。第二，本文的重点，是经济风险的预期路径。为了隔离气候风险问题，我们在我们的 12 周期重叠世代模型中考虑了三个均值为零的对称冲击。这些冲击会影响肮脏的能源使用（碳排放）、碳浓度与温度之间的关系以及温度与损害之间的联系。通过构建，我们的模型展示了一个没有冲击的微量气候问题。然而，由于非线性，对称冲击会产生负面影响，包括潜在的气候灾害。正如我们所展示的，总体而言，帕累托改进碳税可以显着降低气候风险，尤其是灾害风险。专门针对限制气候风险的相关气候风险税可以与专门针对限制平均损失的碳平均损害税一样大，甚至更大。