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Impact of large wildfires on PM10 levels and human mortality in Portugal
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-12 , DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2021-38
Patricia Tarín-Carrasco , Sofia Augusto , Laura Palacios-Peña , Nuno Ratola , Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero

Abstract. Uncontrolled wildfires have a substantial impact on the environment, the economy and local populations. According to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), between the years 2000 and 2013 wildfires burnt about 170,000–740,000 ha of land annually on the south of Europe (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece and France). Although most southern European countries have been impacted by wildfires in the last decades, Portugal was the most affected, having the highest percentage of burned area comparing to its whole territory. For this reason, it deserves a closer attention. However, there is a lack of knowledge regarding the impacts of the wildfire-related pollutants on the mortality of the population. All wildfires occurring during the fire seasons (June-July-August-September) from 2001 and 2016 were identified and those with a burned area above 1000 ha were considered for the study. To assess the spatial impact of the wildfires, these were correlated with PM10 concentrations measured at nearby background air quality monitoring stations, provided by the Portuguese Environment Agency (APA). Associations between PM10 and all-cause (excluding injuries, poisoning and external causes) and cause-specific mortality (circulatory and respiratory), provided by Statistics Portugal, were studied for the affected populations, using Poisson regression models. During the studied period (2001–2016), more than 2 million ha of forest were burned in mainland Portugal and the 48 % of wildfires occurred were large fires. A significant correlation between burned area and PM10 have been found in some NUTS III (regions) on Portugal, as well as a significant correlation between burned area and mortality. North, centre and inland of Portugal are the most affected areas. The high temperatures and long episodes of drought expected on the future will increase the probabilities of extreme events and therefore, the occurrence of wildfires.

中文翻译:

葡萄牙大火对PM10含量和人类死亡率的影响

摘要。不受控制的野火对环境,经济和当地居民产生重大影响。根据欧洲森林火灾信息系统(EFFIS)的数据,在2000年至2013年之间,欧洲南部(葡萄牙,西班牙,意大利,希腊和法国)的野火每年燃烧约170,000–740,000公顷土地。尽管在过去的几十年中,大多数南欧国家/地区都受到了野火的影响,但葡萄牙受灾最大,与整个领土相比,葡萄牙的烧毁面积百分比最高。因此,它值得密切关注。但是,缺乏有关与野火有关的污染物对人口死亡率的影响的知识。确定了2001年和2016年火灾季节(六月,七月,八月至九月)发生的所有野火,并考虑了燃烧面积超过1000公顷的野火。为了评估野火的空间影响,将其与葡萄牙环境局(APA)提供的在附近背景空气质量监测站测得的PM10浓度相关联。使用Poisson回归模型研究了葡萄牙统计局提供的PM10与所有原因(不包括伤害,中毒和外部原因)和特定原因死亡率(循环和呼吸道疾病)之间的关联。在研究期间(2001-2016年),葡萄牙大陆燃烧了超过200万公顷的森林,其中48%的野火是大火。在葡萄牙的某些NUTS III(区域)中,发现烧伤面积与PM10之间存在显着相关性,并且烧伤面积与死亡率之间存在显着相关性。葡萄牙的北部,中部和内陆是受影响最严重的地区。预计未来的高温和长期干旱将增加极端事件和野火发生的可能性。
更新日期:2021-02-12
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