Determining whether seismicity near volcanoes is due primarily to tectonic or magmatic processes is a challenging but critical endeavor for volcanic eruption forecasting and detection, especially at poorly monitored volcanoes. Global statistics on the occurrence and timing of earthquakes near volcanoes both within and outside of eruptive periods reveal patterns in eruptive seismicity that may improve our ability to discern magmatically driven seismicity from purely tectonic seismicity. In this paper, we catalog magnitude four and greater (M4+) earthquakes near volcanoes globally and compute statistics on their occurrence with respect to various eruptive and volcanic attributes, evaluating their utility as diagnostic indicators of eruptions. Using a 2‐week time window and a 30 km radius around the volcanoes, we find that 11% of eruptions are preceded by at least one M4+ earthquake, but only 1% of such earthquakes is followed by eruption. However, earthquakes located 5–15 km from the volcano, those with normal faulting mechanisms and/or large nondouble‐couple components, and those occurring as groups are more commonly associated with eruptions, providing significant forecasting utility in some cases. Similarly, certain volcanoes are more likely to exhibit such precursors, such as those with long repose periods. We illustrate the use of these data in eruption forecasting scenarios, including rapid identification of analogous earthquake sequences at other volcanoes. When integrated within the context of multiparametric, multidisciplinary probabilistic assessments of volcanic activity, global earthquake statistics can improve eruption forecasts, and our work provides a model for use on other rapidly expanding global volcanological databases.

中文翻译：

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全球M4 +地震揭示的火山爆发指标

确定火山附近的地震活动主要是由于构造或岩浆作用引起的，对于火山爆发的预测和探测，特别是在监测不良的火山中，是一项具有挑战性但至关重要的工作。关于火山爆发期间内外的火山附近地震发生和发生时间的全球统计数据，揭示了火山爆发地震活动的模式，这可能会提高我们从纯粹构造地震活动中识别岩浆驱动地震活动的能力。在本文中，我们对全球火山附近的四级和四级以上（M4 +）地震进行了分类，并针对各种喷发和火山属性计算了其发生的统计数据，评估了其作为喷发诊断指标的效用。利用2周的时间窗口和围绕火山的30公里半径，我们发现11％的火山爆发之前至少发生过一次M4 +地震，但是只有1％的此类地震之后是火山爆发。但是，距火山5-15公里的地震，具有正常断层机制和/或较大的非双偶合分量的地震以及成群发生的地震更常与喷发有关，在某些情况下可提供重要的预测效用。同样，某些火山更可能表现出此类前兆，例如休止期较长的那些。我们说明了这些数据在喷发预报场景中的使用，包括快速识别其他火山的类似地震序列。如果将其整合到火山活动的多参数，多学科概率评估中，则全球地震统计数据可以改善喷发预报，