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Re-opening after the lockdown: Long-run aggregate and distributional consequences of COVID-19
Journal of Mathematical Economics ( IF 1.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-12 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102481
Manoj Atolia 1 , Chris Papageorgiou 2 , Stephen J Turnovsky 3
Affiliation  

Covid-19 has dealt a devastating blow to productivity and economic growth. We employ a general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous agents to identify the tradeoffs involved in restoring the economy to its pre-Covid-19 state. Several tradeoffs, both over time, and between key economic variables, are identified, with the feasible speed of successful re-opening being constrained by the transmission of the infection. In particular, while more rapid opening up of the economy will reduce short-run aggregate output losses, it will cause larger long-run output losses, which potentially may be quite substantial if the opening is overly rapid and the virus is not eradicated. More rapid opening of the economy mitigates the increases in both long-run wealth and income inequality, thus highlighting a direct conflict between the adverse effects on aggregate output and its distributional consequences.



中文翻译:

锁定后重新开放:COVID-19 的长期总体和分配后果

Covid-19 对生产力和经济增长造成了毁灭性打击。我们采用具有异质代理的一般均衡框架来确定将经济恢复到 Covid-19 之前状态所涉及的权衡。随着时间的推移和关键经济变量之间的一些权衡被确定,成功重新开放的可行速度受到感染传播的限制。特别是,虽然经济的更快开放会减少短期总产出损失,但会导致更大的长期产出损失,如果开放速度过快且病毒未被根除,损失可能相当可观。更快速的经济开放缓解了长期财富和收入不平等的加剧,

更新日期:2021-03-10
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