Although statistical practices to evaluate intervention effects in single-case experimental design (SCEDs) have gained prominence in recent times, models are yet to incorporate and investigate all their analytic complexities. Most of these statistical models incorporate slopes and autocorrelations, both of which contribute to trend in the data. The question that arises is whether in SCED data that show trend, there is indeterminacy between estimating slope and autocorrelation, because both contribute to trend, and the data have a limited number of observations. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we compared the performance of four Bayesian change-point models: (a) intercepts only (IO), (b) slopes but no autocorrelations (SI), (c) autocorrelations but no slopes (NS), and (d) both autocorrelations and slopes (SA). Weakly informative priors were used to remain agnostic about the parameters. Coverage rates showed that for the SA model, either the slope effect size or the autocorrelation credible interval almost always erroneously contained 0, and the type II errors were prohibitively large. Considering the 0-coverage and coverage rates of slope effect size, intercept effect size, mean relative bias, and second-phase intercept relative bias, the SI model outperformed all other models. Therefore, it is recommended that researchers favor the SI model over the other three models. Research studies that develop slope effect sizes for SCEDs should consider the performance of the statistic by taking into account coverage and 0-coverage rates. These helped uncover patterns that were not realized in other simulation studies. We underline the need for investigating the use of informative priors in SCEDs.

尽管在单例实验设计 (SCEDs) 中评估干预效果的统计实践在最近获得了突出地位，但模型尚未纳入和研究其所有分析复杂性。这些统计模型中的大多数都包含斜率和自相关，这两者都有助于数据的趋势。出现的问题是，在显示趋势的 SCED 数据中，估计斜率和自相关之间是否存在不确定性，因为两者都有助于趋势，而且数据的观察数量有限。使用蒙特卡罗模拟，我们比较了四种贝叶斯变点模型的性能：（a）仅截距（IO），（b）斜率但没有自相关（SI），（c）自相关但没有斜率（NS），以及（ d) 自相关和斜率 (SA)。信息量少的先验被用来保持对参数的不可知论。覆盖率表明，对于 SA 模型，无论是斜率效应大小还是自相关可信区间几乎总是错误地包含 0，并且 II 类错误非常大。考虑到斜率效应大小、截距效应大小、平均相对偏差和第二阶段截距相对偏差的 0 覆盖率和覆盖率，SI 模型优于所有其他模型。因此，建议研究人员偏爱 SI 模型而不是其他三种模型。为 SCED 开发斜率效应大小的研究应通过考虑覆盖率和 0 覆盖率来考虑统计数据的性能。这些有助于揭示其他模拟研究中未实现的模式。