Studying the dynamics of deposits is important for three reasons: first, it serves as an important component of liquidity stress testing; second, it is crucial to asset-liability management exercises and the allocation between liquid and illiquid assets; third, it is the support for a Liquidity at Risk methodology. Current models are based on \(\textit{AR}(1)\) processes that often underestimate liquidity risk. Thus, a bank relying on those models may face failure in an event of crisis. We propose an alternative approach for modeling deposits, using panel data and a momentum term. The model enables the simulation of a variety of deposit trajectories, including episodes of financial distress, showing much higher drawdowns and realistic liquidity at risk estimates, as well as density plots that present a wide range of possible values, corresponding to booms and financial crises. Therefore, this methodology is more suitable for liquidity management at banks, as well as for conducting liquidity stress tests.

研究存款的动态很重要，其原因有三个：第一，它是流动性压力测试的重要组成部分；第二，它是流动性压力测试的重要组成部分。第二，对于资产负债管理活动以及流动资产和非流动资产之间的分配至关重要。第三，它是对“流动性风险”方法的支持。当前模型基于\（\ textit {AR}（1）\）经常低估流动性风险的过程。因此，依赖那些模型的银行在发生危机时可能会面临失败。我们建议使用面板数据和动量项对沉积物进行建模的另一种方法。该模型能够模拟各种存款轨迹，包括财务困境事件，在风险估计时显示出更高的缩水和实际流动性，以及密度图，其表示与繁荣和金融危机相对应的各种可能值。因此，这种方法更适合银行的流动性管理以及进行流动性压力测试。