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Political Agreements and Exporting Activities: An Empirical Assessment of the Effects of the JCPOA Agreement on Iran’s Exports
Comparative Economic Studies Pub Date : 2020-09-07 , DOI: 10.1057/s41294-020-00136-x
Ali Dadpay , Saleh S. Tabrizy

Conflicts hinder international trade. Political agreements that restrain conflicts and remove sanctions may contribute positively to exporting and importing activities. In this study, we examine the effects of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly known as Iran Nuclear Deal, on Iran’s non-oil exports. Employing a dynamic panel model, we find a significant increase in the growth rate of industry-level exports following the removal of nuclear-related sanctions, resulting from this political agreement. In particular, the exports of industries that have relatively low shares in Iran’s non-oil exports grow significantly faster than industries with relatively high shares in those exports. Our findings suggest that even a short-lived political agreement could have significant positive effects on exporting activities in middle-income countries.

中文翻译:

政治协议和出口活动:JCPOA 协议对伊朗出口影响的实证评估

冲突阻碍了国际贸易。限制冲突和取消制裁的政治协议可能对进出口活动产生积极影响。在这项研究中,我们研究了联合综合行动计划(通常称为伊朗核协议)对伊朗非石油出口的影响。采用动态面板模型,我们发现在取消与核相关的制裁后,由于该政治协议,工业级出口的增长率显着增加。特别是,在伊朗非石油出口中所占份额相对较低的行业的出口增长明显快于在这些出口中所占份额相对较高的行业。我们的研究结果表明,即使是短期的政治协议也可能对中等收入国家的出口活动产生显着的积极影响。
更新日期:2020-09-07
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