Previous research has shown that the labor market experiences of less advantaged groups are more cyclically sensitive than the labor market experiences of more advantaged groups; in other words, less advantaged groups experience a high-beta version of the aggregate fluctuations in the labor market. For example, when the unemployment rate of whites increases by 1 percentage point, the unemployment rates of African Americans and Hispanics rise by well more than 1 percentage point, on average. This behavior is observed across other labor-market indicators, and is roughly reversed when the unemployment rate declines. We update this work to include the post-Great Recession period and extend the analysis to consider whether these high-beta relationships change when the labor market is especially tight. We find suggestive evidence that when the labor market is already strong, a further increment of strengthening provides a modest extra benefit to some disadvantaged groups, relative to earlier in the labor-market cycle. In addition, we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that these gains are somewhat persistent for African Americans and women.

中文翻译：

---

奥肯再访：谁能从强劲的经济中受益最大？

先前的研究表明，优势较弱的群体的劳动力市场经验比优势较高的群体的劳动力市场经验更具周期性。换句话说，弱势群体经历了劳动力市场总体波动的高贝塔版本。例如，当白人的失业率上升1个百分点时，非洲裔美国人和西班牙裔美国人的失业率平均上升1个百分点以上。在其他劳动力市场指标中也观察到了这种现象，当失业率下降时，这种现象大致可以逆转。我们将这项工作更新为包括大萧条后的时期，并扩展分析以考虑在劳动力市场特别紧张时这些高贝塔系数关系是否发生变化。我们发现有力的证据表明，当劳动力市场已经很强劲时，相对于劳动力市场周期的早期阶段，进一步加强力度可以为一些弱势群体带来适度的额外利益。此外，我们提供的初步证据表明，这些收益对于非裔美国人和女性而言是持久的。