Abstract This article analyses individual level support for a Basic Income Guarantee (BIG) using the European Social Survey. At the country level, support is highest in South and Central Eastern Europe, but variation does not otherwise seem to follow established differences between varieties of capitalisms or welfare state regimes. At the individual level, findings are broadly in line with the expectations of the political economy literature. Left-leaning individuals facing high labour market risk and/or on low incomes are more supportive of a BIG, whereas current union members are less likely to support a BIG, consistent with the insider-outsider literature. However, when controlling for confounding variables, union membership is not statistically significant, suggesting that it is not membership per se, but the characteristics of unionised workers that make them less supportive. In many countries, a coalition between centrist and left-leaning individuals therefore seems most promising, but its political feasibility depends on whether enough union members are favourable to a BIG and on the level of opposition from high income and/or conservative parts of the electorate.

中文翻译：

---

基本收入保障的政治：分析欧洲的个人支持

摘要 本文使用欧洲社会调查分析了个人对基本收入保障 (BIG) 的支持。在国家层面，南欧和中东欧的支持率最高，但不同的资本主义或福利国家制度之间的差异似乎并不存在。在个人层面，研究结果与政治经济学文献的预期大致相符。面临高劳动力市场风险和/或低收入的左倾个人更支持 BIG，而当前的工会成员不太可能支持 BIG，这与内部-外部文献一致。然而，当控制混杂变量时，工会成员身份在统计上并不显着，这表明它本身不是成员身份，但工会工人的特征使他们不那么支持。因此，在许多国家，中间派和左倾个人之间的联盟似乎最有希望，但其政治可行性取决于是否有足够多的工会成员支持 BIG 以及高收入和/或选民中保守派的反对程度.