Abstract Policymakers face an extremely uncertain environment during COVID-19 Using a nonlinear VAR estimate for the Euro Area, we argue that the benefit of reducing policy uncertainty at a time dominated by pessimistic expectations amounts to several points of GDP The impact on the economy of uncertainty shocks is much larger during periods of negative outlook for the future We estimate the impact on industrial production of the current COVID-19 induced uncertainty to peak at a year-over-year growth loss of ?15 4 per cent in September 2020, and to lead to a fall in CPI inflation between 1 per cent and 1 5 per cent Policies providing state-contingent scenarios ready to be adopted if the worst-case outcomes materialise can reduce the impact of uncertainty

中文翻译：

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冠状病毒不确定性的代价：明确政策计划的高回报

摘要 政策制定者在 COVID-19 期间面临极其不确定的环境 使用欧元区的非线性 VAR 估计，我们认为在悲观预期主导的时间减少政策不确定性的好处相当于 GDP 的几个点 不确定性对经济的影响在未来前景不佳期间，冲击要大得多 我们估计当前 COVID-19 引发的不确定性对工业生产的影响将在 2020 年 9 月达到 15 4% 的同比增长损失时达到峰值，并且导致 CPI 通胀率下降 1% 至 1% 5% 提供可在最坏情况发生时准备采用的国家或有情景的政策可以减少不确定性的影响